Most of the AI industry relies heavily on multi billion dollar loans, agreements to rent data center space that does not yet exist, and the strong conviction that this technology can transform everything.
Based on new estimates, the combined effect of these factors means that the company is expected to fail to reach profitability for an extended period. Despite seeing dramatic growth in its income and popularity, OpenAI is predicted by HSBC Holdings to continue needing hundreds of billions of dollars in loans until 2030.
About OpenAI’s Profit Generation Process
The British investment bank recently provided a new estimate of OpenAI’s challenging path toward making a profit. This estimate was based on known contracts and loans, plus some educated guesses about the wider trends in the AI service market. The findings from this calculated prediction are notable. They are particularly striking because they originate from a financial institution that holds the same unquestioning belief in the transformative power of AI as both OpenAI and numerous Big Tech corporations.
Within five years, the AI startup is predicted to spend a total of $792 billion on renting data center capacity. This expenditure is then expected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2033. According to the financial forecasts, the company is expected to cover this massive expenditure primarily through external financing, such as loans and raising capital. HSBC predicts that OpenAI will continue to seek hundreds of billions of dollars in loans until at least 2030 to fund its high operational costs, including the huge rental contracts.
OpenAI Could Reach 3 Billion Users!
The bank HSBC expects OpenAI to gain 3 billion users by 2030. This enormous number is equivalent to roughly 44 percent of the adult population worldwide, without counting China.Chatbots are forecast to become as widely available and useful as popular software like Microsoft 365. Despite this widespread use, only 10 percent of users are expected to purchase the paid subscription.
OpenAI will rely on paid subscriptions, advertising, agentic AI services, and other business initiatives. Thanks to these, the company is expected to capture 56 percent of all revenue from consumer AI by 2030, a market HSBC estimates will be worth $129 billion in total.
It is surprising that Europe’s largest bank believes Google will not be active in the market. In contrast, they expect competitors like Anthropic, xAI, and other companies to remain in operation within the next five years.
Revenue from Enterprise AI is forecast to reach $386 billion in total. Out of this market, OpenAI is expected to secure a 37 percent share.
A Total Cash Flow Of $282 Billion By 2030!
Considering all factors, the corporation is predicted to achieve a total cash flow of $282 billion by 2030. This figure will also be supplemented by billions of dollars received from partners such as Nvidia and AMD.
OpenAI will ultimately face the challenge of bridging a $207 billion deficit in its necessary funding.
According to HSBC’s prediction, the San Francisco based company may have to adapt to greater “flexibility” in terms of its artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The bank noted that having a shortage of computing capacity is always preferable to dealing with a lack of liquid funds.
Despite the clear signs that the AI financial bubble may collapse soon, HSBC has maintained its belief in the technological breakthroughs that generative AI and other ML technologies are expected to deliver in the future.
The bank predicted that AI technology will be fully integrated into every production and specialized business process. As a result, this will bring important gains in productivity globally.