Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? With just a week to go until the big day, some of us may yet catch a glimpse of festive snowfall — though the chances remain finely balanced. After several weeks of mild conditions, temperatures are set to drop noticeably. In many parts of the United Kingdom, temperatures could fall to around 6–9°C, dipping one or two degrees below the seasonal average. This drop will be driven by a cold air mass advancing from Eastern Europe. If conditions shift even slightly, there is also the possibility of colder air arriving from Scandinavia, increasing the chance that precipitation in eastern areas could turn to sleet or snow.
Why Will It Feel So Cold?
This shift is linked to a high-pressure system forming over the north of the United Kingdom, alongside a low-pressure system developing around France or Spain. The precise positioning of these systems will determine wind direction, and in turn how cold it feels and whether snow is likely. Around the Christmas period, alongside a general cooling trend, eastern areas are expected to be quite cloudy due to precipitation moving in from the North Sea. The best sunshine is likely in the north and west, although there is also a risk of morning frost and fog.
Could There Be a White Christmas?
Forecasting snow in the United Kingdom is notoriously difficult. Current forecasts point to easterly or south-easterly winds, though there remains a chance that a shift in wind direction could draw in colder air from Scandinavia. For most of us, the chances of a white Christmas are low, but they cannot be completely ruled out just yet. In any case, heavy rainfall is not on the menu this Christmas. This calmer spell will be welcomed in areas such as Cumbria and South Wales, which have experienced heavy rainfall in recent weeks.
What is a white Christmas?
By definition, it is sufficient for a single snowflake to fall at any Met Office observation station within a 24-hour period on 25 December. Snow already lying on the ground does not count. Although an “official white Christmas” has occurred frequently since 1960, new analysis shows that local snowfall has been rare for most people and is becoming increasingly uncommon. The last widespread white Christmas occurred in 2010, when snow fell at 19% of stations and snow was lying on the ground at 83% of them.